Bag O' Mail: Jordan Walker's defense, the 2025 rotation, the other reason Mo stuck around, movies, books, documentaries to avoid, and more

Readers had questions, writer has answers -- some of them possibly even correct and coherent

Here’s your latest mailbag, made to order but not served all that promptly. Reader submissions not edited for grammar …

Neil writes: 

Has the Cardinals' major league coaching staff deteriorated in similar ways as their minor league system, which Chaim Bloom has been hired to fix? (understaffed, falling behind on technology, etc) If so, will Bloom have any influence on the major league side in 2025? Lastly, could the poor offense of 2025 have more to do with the general infrastructure deterioration than Turner Ward as an individual coach? 

I think this is probably more of an issue specific to the minor leagues, but there are no doubt upward-cascading effects that affect performance and coaching at the highest level. Dusty Blake strikes me as a tech-forward kind of coach, and I don’t see him as a liability, at least on those grounds. As for the offense, a mix of things undermined the team-wide performance. You have decline phases with Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt and injuries that cost Willson Contreras and to a lesser extent Lars Nootbaar in terms of playing-time volume. Tommy Edman didn’t log a plate appearance until after he was traded to the Dodgers. When it comes to the younger set, though – Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Victor Scott II – it certainly seems possible that player-dev degradation manifested itself in their struggles. 

When discussing the player-dev reboot, however, I think it’s important to bear in mind two things. One, it’s not going to be a panacea. Legions of young players struggle and never reach their overall future potential regardless of which organization is cultivating their skills. Obviously, I expect significant improvement on this front, but there will still be failure stories. Second, the outgoing player-dev apparatus hasn’t been a uniform failure in very recent times. I’d point to Masyn Winn, Andre Pallante to a lesser extent, Iván Herrera’s bat, Quinn Mathews, and others. You can probably throw Michael McGreevy and Jimmy Crooks into this bucket. I do anticipate things will get much better on this front, but let’s temper both our expectations for the new regime and our condemnations of the old one. 

Robert writes: 

Since having a kid, my media consumption has changed dramatically. I haven't been reading nearly as much but I have reached an equilibrium to where I can finally dip back in. Love me some fantasy, some science fiction, and the last climate fiction book I read made me too uneasy (How High We Go In the Dark).

I recommend How High We Go in the Dark to everyone who asks for such things. You’re right that it’s an unsettling read – lacerating at times – but I thought it was masterly in its execution. Earlier this year I enjoyed The Fisherman by John Langan quite a bit. I would describe it as more supernatural than strict fantasy or sci-fi – “mythos-driven,” if you will. Give it a spin. On the fantasy front, I remember enjoying Assassin’s Apprentice by Robin Hobb when I read it a few years back. 

Jake writes: 

Is 20 years still too soon to consider watching the 2004 Red Sox doc on Netflix? Asking for a friend.

Didn’t ESPN already do a documentary on that shit? There’s also that dreadful Americanized movie treatment of the Nick Hornby novel. No, there’s no need to relive the erasure of the 105-win 2004 Cardinals. 

Yzzuf writes: 

I'd really like to know more about the Cardinals' new hitting coach as well. 

Brant Brown is 53 and most recently served as the Mariners’ bench coach and “offensive coordinator” (whatever the latter means) before being dismissed in May of this year. In 2023, he was the Marlins’ hitting coach under then-manager Skip Schumaker, who endorsed him for the Cardinals’ hitting-coach job. 

I don’t pretend to know how much difference a hitting coach makes, but I assume it’s “not zero.” For what it’s worth, here’s how the Marlins’ offense fared in 2022 before Brown was hitting coach, during his tenure in 2023, and in 2024 after he left. I’m using xwOBA, which as mentioned before is my favorite one-shot measure of offensive performance at a base-skill level.  

• 2022 .302 xwOBA

• 2023 .308 xwOBA

• 2024 .290 xwOBA

Marlins hitters saw improvement under Brown, and then they got worse after he left. I don’t want to confuse causation and correlation here, and this timely spike may indeed have had nothing to do with Brown’s work as hitting coach. This is to say nothing of roster changes before and after Brown’s tenure. But let’s note it just the same and acknowledge the possibility that Marlins hitters may have benefitted from Brown’s tutelage. 

Brown before he was in Miami spent five years with the Dodgers in various hitting-instruction capacities, and needless to say I’m interested in anyone who spent that long in what may be the gold-standard organization right now in terms of “coaching up” players. This is a long way of saying I think you can find more positives than negatives in this hire. 

Keith writes: 

In The Athletic today, Jim Bowden published a list of 40 sound free agents to be, they’re likely destinations and prognostication on contract terms. The Cardinals were not mentioned on a single for agent list, not one . now I know he is not the know all, be all of information but this is a bit disturbing. We’ve heard what ownership has stated in the past few weeks so what are they going to try to sell us? What’s their “pitch” to us to purchase season tickets, purchase single game tickets and spend our hard earned money down at the ballpark? They paid $150 million about 30 years ago for a team that is worth billions today. The money is there to compete.

I don’t put much stock in quasi-reporting such as what you mention, but this is likely the reality for the Cardinals this offseason. They’ll be shedding significant payroll via trades and free-agent departures, partly as a response to RSN uncertainties and declining attendance, and as such I don’t think they’ll be making any notable “win now” roster investments. You’re absolutely right that the money is there to compete, but the reality is that it’s not going to be spent this winter. Given the focus on building out player development and going younger at the highest level, I’m giving the DeWitts a pass on this year. Going into the 2026 season, though, they need to resume doing their jobs as owners. 

Russ writes: 

Have you seen any movies in' '24 you would recommend. That includes movies you've streamed.

These aren’t new, but earlier this year I watched and enjoyed the “Three Colors” trilogy. “Red” was my personal favorite. “Speak No Evil” is another one I streamed this year that stands out. I found the protagonists’ reaction during the climax of the film to be pretty unsatisfying, but otherwise I thought it was very well done. It’s not a pleasant watch, but I often like to indulge my dark and nihilistic side when watching movies or playing video games. 

Thomas writes: 

Do you think Mo stuck around to play the bad guy role if they move popular players like Arenado and Gray, thus insulating Bloom from a repeat of the Betts trade fallout in Boston? And will he defer to Bloom on signings/trade returns or will he still try and make his mark on the roster?

I definitely think this was in play at a secondary/tertiary level. The primary motivation, I believe, was to let Chaim Bloom devote his full attention to the player-development reboot. Probably also at play was the DeWitts and Mozeliak not wanting it to appear that Mo was in any way being forced out. Optics and all of that. To your point, though, I’m sure Bloom was not eager to become the name and face associated with whatever level of rebuild is in the offing, especially after John Henry in Boston forced a teardown on him and then broke faith with him. That’s quite understandable from Bloom’s standpoint. For these reasons, I’m fine with Mozeliak’s remaining the most outwardly visible decision-maker for 2025. 

Kyle writes: 

Dayn, do you think JWalk will ever be good at defense if he never succeeds at hitting? I know you are on record stating you think he should be at first base, but I’d still like to see him in the OF, especially since he hasn’t yet hit like even an average first basemen.

In other words, do you think finding success at the plate may help Jordan settle in as a fielder, and (perhaps) lower the temperature from the fans who are ready to pounce every time he misplays a fly ball?

This is an interesting question and something about which I’ve thought a lot in recent months. I thought a great deal of the defensive progress Walker made last season, but 2024 occasioned some backsliding on this front even after devoting much of his offseason work to fielding (possibly at the expense of his hitting development). At this juncture, I’d like to see Walker moved to first base in order to allow him to more fully focus on becoming the hitter he needs to be. First base is not an easy position, but Walker as a former third baseman probably has a baseline skill that can be tapped into once again. However, I really see no indication that moving Walker to first base is presently being considered by the Cardinals. Perhaps time, tide, and the presence of Jon Jay on the coaching staff can unlock something for Walker defensively. My worry is that Walker’s defensive struggles are taking a toll on him mentally and hindering his development as a hitter. That’s unknowable, of course, but it’s a nagging suspicion of mine. 

Mark writes: 

Assuming that the options for Lynn & Gibson aren't picked up, and the possibility that at least one of Mikolas and Gray are traded... What is the rotation going to be? I assume they will keep Fedde, as he is not expensive and could be flipped at the deadline if the team is going nowhere. Also, Pallante seems locked in. Would they try Matz again in the rotation? That isn't going young. Seems McGreevy gets a chance, so that sets up potentially Gray/Fedde/Pallante/Mik/McG.... does that line up? Matz could be a swingman/long guy. Graceffo is there if one of those gets traded. What say you? 

I’d like to see Gray traded if he’s willing to waive his no-trade clause because his value is such that he’ll be more than just a salary offload (i.e., he’ll bring back prospects). I also think Matz should be moved given his modest salary, walk-year status, and capacity to pitch in relief or as a starter. I do think you need innings certainty in the rotation to some extent even when you’re committing to a youth movement. Fedde provides that for now plus another veteran toward the middle or back end.

I laid this out in a recent piece, but here’s how I’d arrange the rotation at the outset of 2025: 

1. Erick Fedde

2. Andre Pallante

3. Kyle Gibson

4. Michael McGreevy

5. Quinn Mathews

If Fedde fares well and the team drifts from contention, he can be shopped leading up to the trade deadline. I don’t think this one happens. I think it’s much more likely that they pay the $1 million buyout on Gibson and let him walk. If that’s the case, then put Miles Mikolas at the No. 4 spot and slide McGreevy up. I don’t relish the idea of watching Mikolas make starts in 2025, but he should be able to take his turns. 

Andrew writes: 

Looking at the various polls, if I were a betting man, or political futures market "investor", I'd put my money on the Missouri amendment legalizing sports betting passing. If that is indeed the case on November 5, how much of the Cardinals' TV revenue hole could be filled with new gambling revenue?

I’m not sure, but given that I’ve heard BDIII mention the prospect of legalized sports betting multiple times in very hopeful-sounding terms, I’m assuming it matters quite a bit to ownership. There would presumably be opportunity to get in on the action not only inside Busch Stadium but also at Ballpark Village, thus looping in bettor fans who may not have a ticket to the game in question. I can’t put a figure on how much it would help the bottom line, but signs point to it being a meaningful number. 

Until next time, friends.